Andy Burnham has launched a bid to return to Parliament to run in the Makerfield by-election.

The seat, which is held by Labour MP Josh Simons, has become vacant after the incumbent announced he will step down.

It offers Mr Burnham a route back to Parliament and, potentially, the chance to challenge Sir Keir Starmer to become Labour leader and prime minister.

Simons said: "Today, I am putting the people I represent and the country I love first and will be resigning as MP for Makerfield. I am standing aside so that Andy Burnham can return to his home, fight to re-enter Parliament, and if elected, drive the change our country is crying out for.

"This has not been an easy decision. This is my family's home, where only a few weeks ago, doctors and nurses at Wigan Infirmary saved our newborn son's life."

Andy Burnham said: "I can confirm that I will be requesting the permission of the NEC to stand in the Makerfield by-election.

"I grew up in this area and have lived here for 25 years. I care deeply about it and its people. I know they have been let down by national politics."

A return to Parliament would mean Andy Burnham giving up his job as Greater Manchester mayor – and there are huge questions hanging over whether Labour can hold on to the mayor position without Andy Burnham.

Mr Burnham has held the region's top political job since 2017, and he's never looked like losing it since then.

He was re-elected in 2021 and 2024, both with storming victories over his political rivals, picking up more than 60 per cent of votes each time.

In 2024, it's thought Mr Burnham won 214 wards out of 215 across the region, with Labour sources suggesting he only lost in Werneth, Oldham, where his party did not field a candidate in the local elections held the same day.

It's a sign of the widespread backing Andy Burnham has enjoyed in the region during his time in the job.

Policies such as bringing buses back under local control under the Bee Network, and the introduction of a £2 cap for single journeys, have been welcomed across the region.

But now a route appears to have opened for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster, and potentially all the way to Number 10, Labour could have a fight on its hand to keep hold of the Greater Manchester mayor position.

A look at the local election results in Greater Manchester on May 7 showed that Labour is haemorrhaging support in some parts of the region.

Areas such as Wigan and Tameside were painted turquoise on polling day as Reform UK picked up swathes of seats in Labour's heartlands.

In Manchester, it was the Green Party who were celebrating the loudest on May 7, winning 18 of the 32 seats which were up for grabs and making them the official opposition at the town hall.

Then there was the Gorton and Denton by-election in February, where Labour was pushed to third place behind Reform and the Greens who won the contest when Hannah Spencer was elected as an MP.

What is clear is that the political landscape in Greater Manchester appears to be changing. What is unclear is how that could change in future.

Mr Burnham's bid for Parliament is a major test of whether Labour can keep hold of its support in Greater Manchester as it takes jabs from both the left and right.

What voting system will be used?

Adding to complexities are the changes that keep coming to mayoral voting systems.

The first time voters were asked to choose Greater Manchester's mayor in 2017, a system known as 'supplementary voting' was used.

This is when voters can choose their first and second preference for the job. As it happened, Andy Burnham won more than 60pc of total votes in 2017, so was elected at the first count.

Supplementary voting stayed around until 2024 when the system returned to the first-past-the-post method, which is how MPs are elected.

This is where voters choose the one candidate they would like to elect.

The change in 2024 mattered little for the outcome in Greater Manchester, as Mr Burnham again won a huge majority picking up 63pc of all votes.

But new legislation is set to change the system again, with a return back to supplementary voting.

This is set out in the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act 2026.

The Local Democracy Reporting Service understands that secondary legislation will be needed before the voting system changes, so for now the first-past-the-post method remains.

Any mayoral election would be run based on the law as it stands at the relevant time.

The Electoral Reform Society have welcomed the push towards supplementary voting in mayoral elections, and have argued that the first-past-the-post system would 'reduce choice' for voters.

They said in April: "The previous government imposed First-Past-the-Post on Mayoral elections via their Elections Act (2022), which we strongly opposed – arguing that it would allow for powerful mayors being elected with a mandate from fewer local people.

"We also pointed out that it would reduce choice for voters, potentially forcing them to use their one vote tactically to vote for a candidate who was not their first choice, with the aim of keeping out a candidate they really disliked."

The big question is whether the change is likely to benefit Labour?

Party insiders pointed out that the change to first past the post was made under the former Conservative government, and the move back towards supplementary voting has come under the current Labour government.

A source explained that progressive voters, such as those voting for the Greens, could be tempted to put Labour as their second choice.

That matters because if there is a close race between Labour and Reform with the Greens in third place, Green Party voters' second preferences would then be added to the other parties' total number of ballots, potentially swinging the outcome in Labour's direction.

Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, said Reform would be the 'biggest losers' from a move back to supplementary voting, because of the size differences between the 'left and right' block of voters in Greater Manchester who may give each other their second preferences.

But he stressed that the Greens could just as well benefit from the change in system as Labour.

He added: "If the Greens were able to overtake Labour in the first vote, which they're not miles away from doing, then they could benefit from the second preference votes.

"I can't understand why Labour didn't get it done [changing the voting system] this May, it has probably cost them at least one mayoral election in London."

On the prospect of a by-election for the Greater Manchester mayor job, Professor Ford said: "It would be by a very large margin the biggest by-election that Britain has ever had, there are EU member states that are smaller than the electorate in Greater Manchester."

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